By Shmuel Katz

In the seemingly endless election season, by the time you read this, we will have finally (thankfully) passed the day of “the speech.” What a ridiculous focus on what is really not a big deal. Foreign leaders regularly address the UN and the U.S. Congress. It certainly was timed to benefit Bibi in the elections. But there can be no doubt that the U.S. response–especially its nasty tone–was designed to harm Bibi in the elections.

Both sides have used this to make political hay here. The anti-Bibi forces have trotted out everything and everyone they could to demand publicly that he cancel the trip and the speech. As if. The guy accepted the invitation; any cancellation or postponement would be interpreted as weakness. Bibi would come off as a guy who succumbed to pressure and is easily influenced by other people’s opinions.

These people cannot honestly expect that he would do so. Why, then, would they continue to demand that he cancel and berate him for not doing what he cannot and obviously will not do? The only reason that makes sense is that they want to keep the point fresh and in the voters’ faces in the hope that they can score points off him.

The pro-Bibi camps have spun the “event” as the time for everyone to rally around Bibi, who is doing what a leader does–fighting for his people and his nation. They would have us believe that election politics has nothing to do with the speech at all. Do they really expect us to believe that?

As for any thought of deciding not to have the speech, why would he even consider it? Right or wrong, he is being touted as a guy who goes his own way. He refuses to kowtow to a government that he claims is ignoring the security risks to his country and, in doing so, plays in to a strong streak of independence that is a staple of the Israeli mindset. He is, according to his supporters, willing to stand up to the “most powerful man in the world” in order to protect his country.

And you have the perfect storm. Both sides are happy to lob potshots at the other and pander to their bases. Both sides eagerly trot out their “independent experts” to support their positions. And both sides are probably totally wrong in their public analysis of things.

Note that I said public analysis. You see, in the end, I think that the whole thing will end up being either a total wash or having a slight benefit to Bibi, similar to the benefit he would have had if he had simply given the speech, met with President Obama, and gone home. All that hot air and rhetoric were simply wasted in a tit-for-tat negative publicity blitz on both sides.

Politics here is an incredibly personal thing. It has to be when your country’s existence is under daily threat by more enemies than you can count. I am not saying that in the U.S. you are not passionate about your politics and elections; you are. But Israelis take it to the extreme.

Few people on the right or left will change their minds because of this speech. Even those in the middle, the undecided, are going to be only lightly swayed by the fact that the speech happened. For every undecided who is swayed to the anti-Bibi camp because of the fear that he is harming U.S. relations, there is at least another undecided who will be swayed to the pro camp because–and this cannot be stressed enough–President Obama is not the most popular person here and Bibi is gaining admiration for standing up to him.

We won’t really know until after the elections. Polling data here is notoriously inaccurate. One example: they had Yesh Atid at 12 seats in the last election; they won 19. So despite what the left-leaning media here declare in the days and weeks ahead, the only true barometer of the speech will be the ballot box.

I would bet anything that both Bibi and the Obama administration wish they could walk the whole thing back. Had he known how vehemently the U.S. administration was to attack him, I am sure that Bibi would never have even considered accepting the invitation. Why would he open himself up to such enduring ridicule and hostility? Like him or not, the guy is an incredibly sharp and wily politician (David Ben-Gurion is the only prime minister who was in office for more total years than Bibi). Instead of accepting the invitation, he would probably have made a big deal about wanting to work hand-in-hand with the White House and not wanting to politicize the issue.

The Obama administration has made no secret of its desire to see “regime change” here in Israel. Had they known how much of a maelstrom of rhetoric they were going to ignite, much of it probably in Bibi’s favor, I cannot imagine that instead of pouting quite so publicly, they would not have simply opted to ignore the whole thing and do a two-minute photo-op, all the while downplaying it as much as possible.

But no one really asked me. I guess that is why I am not a professional political adviser or analyst, because I must be missing something here.

I hope you have an outstanding Purim and that, in the spirit of Venahafoch Hu, the next few weeks see only positive campaigning and honest brokering for the future of our country. Purim Sameach!

Shmuel Katz is the executive director of Yeshivat Migdal HaTorah (www.migdalhatorah.org), a new gap-year yeshiva. Shmuel, his wife Goldie, and their six children made aliyah in July of 2006. Before making aliyah, he was the executive director of the Yeshiva of South Shore in Hewlett. You can contact him at shmu@migdalhatorah.org.

 

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