While Syria and Iraq are being torn apart, an independent Kurdish state may emerge – Saudi Arabia tries to establish a NATO-like Sunni coalition, but challenges abound – Meanwhile, Israel would be wise to avoid other people’s battles – A year in review.

By Yaakov Amidror, ISRAEL HAYOM

Kurdish forces northeast of Baghdad in 2014
The changes currently sweeping over the area surrounding Israel are so significant and will so profoundly impact the future of the region that it is difficult to say how it will look in the coming years and onward. From time to time it is important to stop and take stock – make an interim assessment – and the end of the calendar is a good time to do just that.

The concept of “nation-state” has taken quite a blow this year. Three states have entirely collapsed (Iraq, Syria and Libya) and several others are on the verge (chiefly Yemen), and no one would be surprised if additional nations join the list in the future. Even in states that have ostensibly remained intact, deep rifts have emerged that will be difficult to bridge therefore the unrest will not soon abate.

In Syria there are three wars being waged simultaneously. The bitterest one is the war between the Alawi regime and the various Sunni rebels. The regime, which was on the verge of collapse despite being propped up by Hezbollah and Iran, was ultimately saved thanks to Russian involvement, which brought enormous firepower. But even Russia can’t tip the scales, and it certainly can’t grant the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad any real legitimacy. Today, the Assad regime rules over about a third of the area of Syria, and after some 4 to 5 million refugees have fled, it also rules over most of its current inhabitants.

The second war, against the Islamic State group, is being waged primarily by Iraq and the United States, and to a certain degree by France and Russia. The Iraqi army’s recent victory in the central Iraqi city of Ramadi may be a sign of things to come there, but in Syria, it is likely to be a long battle. The main challenge will be obtaining accurate intelligence, because the battle against IS in Syria is being waged primarily from the air.

The third war is the one between Israel and the Hezbollah-Iran camp. Hezbollah has been taking advantage of the chaos in Syria to gather the best Iranian and Russian weapons systems (initially sold to Syria) and to prepare the Syrian Golan Heights for battle with Israel. For its part, Israel has been taking action to diminish Hezbollah’s capabilities there in various ways, including conspicuous strikes in Syria. Despite the expanding Russian presence in Syria, Israel has maintained its freedom to maneuver. The military cooperation with the Russians is working well, apparently.

But the wars in Syria and in Iraq have generated such a jolt that the aftershocks are felt well outside these countries’ borders. Turkey …read more

Source:: Israpundit

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here