Israel is bracing and preparing for the expected response by the Middle East’s axis of evil—Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, Iraqi militias, and the Houthis of Yemen. Last week Israel eliminated Fuad Shukr, the chief of staff of Hezbollah, and Ismail Haniyeh, a top leader of Hamas, and earlier in the month Mohammed Deif, the chief of staff of Hamas. All of the targeted assassinations were executed with precise intelligence within the heart of Beirut, Teheran, and Gaza. All of these terror leaders where personally responsible for the deaths of thousands of Israelis over the years, and they all were sworn enemies not only of the State of Israel but of all Jews throughout the world.
Preceding the assassination of these three terror leaders, let’s not dismiss the event that occurred on May 19. On this day a helicopter carrying Iran’s president, Ebrahim Raisi, crashed in the northwestern province of East Azerbaijan. Raisi was killed, along with Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian. Little, if any, information has been publicized concerning the causes of the helicopter crash, but in light of the recent events it wouldn’t be surprising to discover that the crash was not the result of bad weather or pilot error.
The decision to carry out the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas’s political bureau in Tehran, was precisely because Haniyeh was under Iranian patronage and security responsibility. The precision and intelligence behind the operation point to extraordinary capabilities. The intelligence and operational capabilities of Israel have sent a clear and direct message to the leaders of terror in the Middle East. All terror leaders, all terrorists, and any enemy of Israel cannot feel safe and secure from the State of Israel should a decision be taken to eliminate them. No distance, no subterranean bunker, and no Iranian security responsibility will be able to prevent Israel from overcoming these operational challenges and eliminating with pinpoint accuracy anyone of the leaders who have attacked Israel or carry responsibility for attacking Israel since October 7.
Haniyeh could have been eliminated in any number of locations, whether in Qatar where he set up shop, or Beirut where he frequently visited to meet other terror leaders, but Israel chose Teheran. Why is that? The choice to assassinate Haniyeh in the heart of Teheran, within a security complex of the Iranian government has exposed not only the centrality of Iranian involvement in Islamic terror, but mainly Iranian military impotency and outdated technological capabilities that seem very impressive in military parades conducted throughout the year for public consumption, but operationally have no value in preventing Israel from reaching anyone deemed an enemy. Over the past three months, Iranian leaders have begun to internalize the understanding that has resonated in every capital of the Middle East—anyone who attacks the State of Israel should fear for his own fate as well.
Israel’s “outstretched arm” has successfully shown operational capabilities in attacking targets within ranges of upwards of 2,000 kilometers. Fighter planes that fly at such an extended range need to receive refueling, control, intelligence, and a high level of readiness by support forces and the Israeli navy. The ability to synchronize all of these complimentary forces has forced Iranian and other terror leaders to question many of their assumptions concerning the ability of their military forces to protect themselves.
What remains to be seen is what effect the targeted assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in the heart of Teheran will achieve. Will it restrain the Iranians and their proxies, or will it lead to a coordinated attack on all fronts against the State of Israel? It is important to remember that three months ago, Iranian forces launched a coordinated attack of over 350 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and UAVs/drones against the territory of the State of Israel. Despite this unprecedented Iranian attack using the latest and most lethal capabilities at the disposal of the Iranian military forces, 99 percent of the missiles and drones were either shot down by Israeli forces or landed within Iranian territory. Some of Israel’s newer air defense systems—Arrow 3 and David’s Sling—were successfully battle tested. Iranian leaders know that only a small portion of Israel’s capabilities had been used during the attack.
As Israel braces for retaliation from Hezbollah and Iran for the deaths of terror chiefs in the coming days, let’s not ignore the fact that Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah opted to address his followers at the funeral of Fuad Shukr, his second in command, through a closed circuit television address from an undisclosed location in Lebanon. Nasrallah obviously fears for his life and was not taking any chances. His inability to speak freely and publicly might very well give an inclination of what we can expect in the coming days. On top of that, should the Iranian Islamic Republic decide to restore their “national honor” or attempt to reassert their deterrence and enter into a full-scale confrontation with Israel, they may very well endanger their strategic goal of nuclear capability with its nuclear project bearing the brunt of an Israeli pre-emptive reprisal. This possibility might very well force the Iranians to reconsider their response to Israel.
In the coming days, much of the threatening hype surrounding the Iranians and Hezbollah will fizzle out and what we can expect is more of the same. Sporadic attacks by Hezbollah ground forces from Lebanon and Iraqi militias from Syrian territory against the northern border of Israel. These largely indiscriminate attacks on border homes and military posts make headlines, however, have no strategic significance. These attacks will be accompanied by attempts to fire drones and/or missiles, again; all previous attempts have been largely ineffective in entering Israeli airspace or territory. What might very well surprise us is that the Haniyeh assassination might facilitate the hostage agreement proposed by Israel, which will include a temporary lull of the IDF’s advancement in the Gaza Strip, enabling Iran and Hezbollah to claim victory and end their current round of aggression against Israel. n
Ron Jager grew up in the South Bronx of New York, making aliyah in 1980. Ron is a 25-year veteran of the Israel Defense Forces, where he served as a field mental-health officer and as commander of the central psychiatric military clinic for reserve soldiers at Tel-Hashomer. Since retiring from active duty, he has been providing consultancy services to NGOs, implementing psychological trauma and psychological education programs to communities in the North and South of Israel. Ron served as a strategic adviser to the chief foreign envoy of Judea and Samaria. To contact him, e-mail medconf@gmail.com. Read more of Ron Jager’s articles at 5TJT.com.
